Friday, March 30, 2012

Not enough math - too much math

There is no substitute for understanding the world around you and mathematics is a way to get there. A few differential equations will give you the right level of objectivity, while too many may leave you wanting to look elsewhere. Consider these examples.

 It is year 1867 and life is completely miserable when Karl Marx publishes the first volume of Das Kapital, Kritik der politischen Ökonomie. The book lays out the basic theory of wealth. The key concepts are "surplus value", "means of production" "accumulation of capital" and so on. It is simple and it is almost built from the first principles. I am reluctant to speculate since many of my family members have intimate knowledge of Marx' work (while I do not) but I think the theory is so useful because it allows to be twisted, adapted, extended and used in so many different ways. It helps those that agree with it as well as those that do not. At a closer look, the book is easy to read but extremely boring. There are hundreds of examples but there are no formulas, tables, graphs or pie charts. Lack of a single differential equation when the whole thing is about "maximizing the surplus value" is just sad. Obviously the standards of academic discourse that Marx was subscribing to were limited by the toolbox at his disposal, but it is amazing how poorly the whole thing is put together. A modern version would come with a dvd, video clips of slaving workers, champagne sipping capitalists, and the Red Army choir gently humming The Internationale in the background. Of course Marx understood that Das Kapital is not for everybody. Consequently, it was preceded by the Communist Manifesto, a piece of inspired and energetic writing, that channeled the key ideas of Das Kapital while spicing them with tidbits about wife sharing among communists. It is a work of great enthusiasm and also an excellent brainwash. So as it stands, these writings laid out transformative ideas for the XX century. Although the take home message for the average Joe was "you are being screwed" Das Kapital gives a very clear guidance on how to get rich - wealth comes from hard work, and preferably someone else's work. For hundred years afterward these concepts were followed and the idea of acquiring a machine and putting a redneck in front of it fired up the imagination of millions of gold diggers.  It is clear that many millions of lives would have been spared if the the word "mathematischen" replaced "politischen" in the Das Kapital sub-title. A few partial differential equations and a chapter or two on the point of diminishing returns, tipping points and such things would have possibly kept political wackos at a distance. Certainly the last hundred years would have been easier if this theory was build more on mathematics and less on propaganda.


 Fast forward to 2008 when the world's economy is brought to its knees. Marx's theory seems now obsolete and creation of wealth is no longer linked to human labor or to manufacturing in general. Consider Renaissance Technologies - a hedge fund with less than 300 employees that in 2009 had over 1 billion in profit. With no orphans working 12 hours in the production line or other workforce abuses, these profits raise few eyebrows. A simple question about where this wealth comes from seems strangely neglected and the message for the average Joe appears to be "nobody is getting hurt ". This time mathematics is abundantly present and it obfuscates everything.  The point is that modeling behind high-frequency trading, CDOs and so on relies heavily on mathematics, but mathematics is not used toward better understanding of the bigger picture. If the XXth century was about the creation of wealth, then perhaps the XXIst is about the redistribution of it.  It is entirely possible that this is a zero-sum game and profits of hedge-fund managers indicate that everybody else is getting just a little poorer.
So  where is the next Communist Manifesto that would explain it all in simple terms, blame the guilty and provide the ideological backbone to the Occupy Wall Street movement? Where?! It is time for ten tweets that will change the world!

Friday, March 23, 2012

Ministry of Everything forges ahead!


This continues my uncle's diary from here.

Big Gala

Botany Unit is a small part of Ministry of Everything, and our organization is undergoing  significant transformations. Just the other day we had All Comerades on Deck meeting. Since we are such a large organization it took place in a nearby Fire Station, and still we had to do it in three shifts! 
We were first and I wish we wern't. It was early morning and comrades were still not fully awake. The leadership was trying to raise the spirit with The Interantionale but our voices were feeble and tired.
The leading idea for the meeting was "One of Everything". My colleague joked that this is right - in the communist  system one is plenty and two would be already too much. I am still thinking whether I should report these subversive comments to the management… Anyway, I think it is like in the poem of Mayakovsky:

                         The Party and Lenin are twin brothers,
                         when we say one, we mean the other.

One of Everything means unity and togetherness in a vague and imprecise form. It is a way of thinking that allows more important units a bigger share of the resources, and less important ones to continue making  sacrifices. This way everybody feels appreciated and contributes to the common goal!

The minister and his deputy sat at the podium with a little fern between them. Fern is a beloved plant of our Party and no serious meeting can occur without one. The first half an hour were the production statistics. It was clear that we are are beating capitalist pigs left and right but as usual the complete victory is elusive.  So more sacrifices have to be made, longer hours, less food and more attention to political purity. 
Next we had a brief period when comrades could ask questions to our leaders. Three questions were asked and they concerned fairly peripheral aspects of our organization. Our system is based on democracy and free exchange of ideas but constant questioning of everything (that capitalists are so proud of) is only a sign of poor education. In our society, citizens already know the answers so there is no need to ask many questions!

At the end of the ceremony we saw a propaganda film about our Ministry. Comrades filmmakers did a good job… The film starts with the great battles of World War II and then shows our soldiers fighting in Korea, Vietnam, our special units building missile silos in Cuba, removing american mines from harbors of Nicaragua, and so on. There is even a short clip showing children putting sugar into a fuel tank of a big truck with the US Army logo! Good brave kids with the right revolutionary zeal! Instead of traditional Tchaikovsky soundtrack, the movie features some  battle noises, and it is shot in color! Excellent job! I am sure that our Ministry will be on the minds of our citizens as a  key contributor to country's welfare and a bulwark against capitalist disease.  However,  I still have this feeling that it is a bit of misdirection. Of course battling capitalist pigs is very important but this is not exactly what we do and our contributions are far more subtle.  


Acceleration

This is an idea that came straight from the Central Committee. We are supposed to do everything just a little faster and in the end it will result in a great leap forward. Different units use different metrics so let me explain what it means for the Botany Unit. We are about growing things and this is tied up to a yearly cycle.  However, three-field crop rotation is the most common of our activities so the bulk of our actions is on a three-year schedule. In addition we have somewhat experimental five-field crop rotation.  Three years ago the Party felt that the victory is near and we got a lot of extra resources. Botany Unit got extra seeds, machines and so on. We worked extra hard and made good use of it, in spite of the fact that  with farming it is more important that these resources come in a steady and predictable way. Anyway, at the urging of Central Committee we put some of these extra resources into the experimental five-year programs. And now this caught attention of our distinguished comrades and they suggested doing it in four instead of five years. This is a great idea in principle but in practice it does not make much sense. Things that were meant to last five years are usually difficult to do in four. However, the comrades in the central committee did not get these prestigious posts for paying attention  to whining of their underlings.  We have to comply and this is a simple order. As this plan is completely nonsensical from our point of view we came to a conclusion that this is a part of grand scheme that will result in an unexpected victory elsewhere. Yet we have to tell our farmers that whatever we gave them for five years has to be used in four or it will be taken away. As you can imagine, farming community is not happy about it but in the end they will toe the line. Everybody does.


Virtual farming

This is a new fad, and Botany Unit leads the way. Few years back our working groups had to include veterans, later soldiers and now they need to be partly virtual. This is all because the Party gave us new technology - each of our working units was provided with a phone! The devices look pretty ordinary but in the end they will reduce the costs, increase productivity and help with our fight against capitalism. We assign three assistants to every phone to monitor its operation and protect from damage or misuse.  This is an important assignment and for the moment we are not allowed to touch these devices. This crowds our farming units and unfortunately it lowers our productivity. This is because in the end the number of comrades that are involved in each unit is generally larger than it was  before but all these extra participants are not associated with the primary tasks. In addition this technology is very stable - it either works perfectly or not at all and unfortunately, the number of times that it does not work is still high. Luckily, the reasons are usually simple - mis-dialed numbers, disconnected cables or virtual farmer falling asleep. Perhaps if we were allowed to study these devices ourselves we could improve the effectiveness… I love technology,  but I also like the original idea of a farming unit. Working together on a field, being able to see and talk to one another, and afterward having a simple meal together - these things are  difficult to replace with technology even as sophisticated as a phone. For the most part virtual farmers send their comments in a letter and listening to their talking while we work on the field is often not very productive.

Continued here.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Advocating for science - a success story

One of the missions of our organization is to support basic science and the going is tough. Spending money on scientific projects is satisfying and fairly simple but getting the taxpayers to pay for it is not. So we struggle and complain. Yet acquiring resources for seemingly hopeless projects can be successful as the following example illustrates.

For quite some time I have been longing to became an owner of a Harley-Davidson motorcycle. In line of my opening remarks, this is an investment that is difficult to frame as a necessary family purchase. At the very least, it costs as much as a decent car, uses significantly more gas and has as much utility value as your brother's cocaine addiction. For me a Harley is a natural step to a bigger and fancier bike, but the connection is deeper. Somewhat obsolete technology, emphasis on form over content, and trading high rpm's for low-end torque resonate profoundly with the direction in which my life is going at the moment.
So yes, if my wife is a taxpayer in this equation it looks like a hopeless project and frankly, convincing an average citizen to spend a penny on algebraic geometry should be trivial in comparison! Furthermore, for my wife joining the Harley-Davidson family is somewhat comparable to joining the Manson family. In fact, I have have my doubts as well. After all, I have not been to Nam, I do not have tattoos, and I do not own an American flag. Yet I can recite most lines from Big Lebowski so perhaps some residual connection is there. 

Gestation

Every great idea is born in a quiet space and it requires some time. For several years I have been frequenting Harley-Daidson dealers and getting inspired. HD dealerships  are church-like places filled with beautiful bikes and the smell of fresh paint. You enter them caring your primordial sin of not having one of those bikes and giving some lame excuse for not correcting this error immediately. Yet Harley-Davidson priests are gentle and forgiving and they give you hope that you will mend your ways eventually. So you start thinking and figuring your options - a long and arduous process. 
It is really no different then when as a taxpayer you visit Harvard or MIT and you leave with the impression that you might grow a second brain one day or at at the very least your offspring will study there. 

Unveiling

Sooner or later your plan has to be laid out in the open. It is a precarious moment because this seedling of an idea can be squashed in an instant. The main objectives are 
1. present the plan as a joint idea,
2. create an atmosphere of inevitability around it
3. divert attention from the undesirable aspects of the project.

These are well tested methods of universal value whether you are getting a bike, changing the name of an organization or building a large telescope. This is where most of the projects collapse, but if you survived this part you are on a solid ground. Soldier on!

First contact

It is time for the first visit to the Harley-Davidson family with my wife. She does not know what to expect but a great deal of hostility is just below the surface. We arrive on time and are greeted by the salesman, the guy that I bonded with on several prior occasions. My wife challenges most of his statements and she behaves irreverently. However, the priest of Harley-Davidson is a professional and with the agility of Jackie Chan he evades confrontation. Eventually, the rescue comes in the form of a free Harley-Davidson coffee - a terrible and undrinkable brew that channels her  criticism in a safe direction. In comparison, everything else seems better and we start moving forward. My wife stops comparing the place to Home Depot - her most hated shopping destination and when we leave an hour later our wallet is lighter but there is a  "hold"  sticker on one of the bikes.

This is a crucial phase and there is no recipe for success. A mixture of scientists, taxpayers and politicians is combustible and nothing can be taken for granted.

Closure

The final day has arrived. My wife drops me off at the Harley-Davidson dealership and I am supposed to come back on a new bike. I am a lonely sardine swimming in a shark pool but I do not quite realize it. The key word is "options" and there are tons of them. I am enjoying everything so far, particularly the fact that there is no haggling and in fact nobody told me how much it all is going to cost. I am quickly lured into a service agreement which includes six  free bike washes. I have washed my old bike only once and the appeal of this service is boundless. As if this is not  revealing enough, my attempts to project an image of a bad-ass biker are squashed when I'm am being congratulated on being the first ever client with a perfect credit score. I briefly toy with the idea of alluding this to my white-collar crime activities but eventually I resign myself to be what a large portion of Harley-Davidson family must be - mid level bureaucrats who like to pretend on weekends that they are somebody else. 

Whether this is a new bike or new science the act of sale is always the same and a scientist is no different than a used car dealer. No effort is spared to provide the buyer with a lot of dubious extras, wool is pulled in front of ones eyes many times and utility of acquiring a dismemberment package is explained in a most creative way. 

Two hours later I hop on a new bike and head home. The ride is everything that I expected except that it is freezing cold and I have no windshield.


Aftermath

As with every taxpayer funded project that went a bit overboard the day of reckoning is near. Upon confessing that I paid thousands of dollars for six bike washes my wife becomes speechless and manifests quite unusual face discoloration. When she recovers, the errors in my judgment become glaringly apparent in the most explicit manner. I pledge to undo the damage as my membership in my family is being put on hold. In the end I rescind all extras, including parts that were supposed to be installed by the dealer. Harley-Davidson family Is not pleased either, they claw at my careless offerings and it looks like they plan to reject me as well. 

Alas in the end all is well. We sign a brand new contract and I get my bike parts. I confidently declare that installing them will be an utmost triviality only to discover at home how foolish these statements were. Luckily I am being rescued by a friend who mastered the zen of motorcycle maintenance.
In the end, the project is a roaring success and the path towards incremental upgrades and modifications is wide open. HD parts catalog resembling a phone directory of a mid-size town rests by my bedside and messes up my sleep patterns.